Online holiday shopping is expected to rise 18% this year, according to the 2016 Holiday Shopping Forecast (PDF) from Visa.
Nearly half (47%) of the consumers surveyed by Visa said they are planning to do more than half or all of their holiday shopping online, keeping with the trend of the last few years. These findings closely mirror previous results as 43% of shoppers actually did half or all of their shopping online in 2014, and 46% in 2015.
“We’ve seen a steady increase in mobile and online shopping traffic over the past couple of holiday seasons and expect this to continue throughout the 2016 season,” said Sam Shrauger, SVP of Digital Solutions at Visa, Inc. “In fact, according to our recent consumer survey, we anticipate online shopping to increase by at least 18% this year. One of the main factors leading to this increase is the ease of making online purchases, especially with consumer products such as Visa Checkout that help to streamline the purchase process.”
The use of mobile for shopping also continues to rise, as 15% of all holiday shopping is expected to occur on a mobile device. Specifically popular for millennials, shoppers ages 18 to 34 are expected to complete 22% of their gift buying on mobile. Almost as popular among Generation Xers, shoppers ages 35 to 54 will buy 18 percent of their gifts on mobile. Mobile is still not a popular channel for shoppers over the age of 55, who will buy just 9 percent of their gifts on mobile.
Based on recent years, the week of Cyber Monday will likely be the biggest online shopping period of the holiday season, but last-minute shoppers are likely to cause mid-December surge, according to the study.
But Black Friday seems to be declining in importance, as it dropped to 13th in ranking of shopping days by total payment volume in 2015. Previously, the day had ranked fourth in 2014 and third in 2013 as the most important day for all three shopping channels: online, mobile and in-store.
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However, the deals offered on Black Friday by retailers are expected to outnumber deals from previous years, according to Black Friday Predictions.